Cross-Border Caution Meets Alberta Resilience
- Clearview Insider
- May 7
- 2 min read
The Q1 2025 economic picture is one of tempered expectations and regional contrasts. In the U.S., GDP shrank by 0.3% (annualized), with trade disruptions and persistent inflation signalling an uncertain path forward. Meanwhile, Canada's GDP dipped 0.2% in February, led by sharp declines in mining, construction, and real estate-related activity. March's preliminary estimate shows a modest +0.1% rebound, however ATB’s latest forecast places national growth at just 0.6% for 2025.
Despite these national pressures, Alberta continues to demonstrate a degree of resilience. According to ATB’s Twenty Four Seven Outlook, Alberta is expected to fare better than other provinces in the face of the global trade war. Alberta benefits from lower exposure to steep tariffs, ongoing in-migration, and a relatively affordable cost of living. The province’s energy sector is projected to expand despite a 10% tariff, aided by strong balance sheets and improving access to global markets. Tourism and targeted fiscal support are also expected to provide a cushion.
For Calgary’s CRE market, these indicators suggest a bifurcated outlook: demand tied to consumer and discretionary spending may soften, while activity in energy, logistics, tourism, and essential services remains more stable. With interprovincial migration on the rise and long-term cost advantages in play, Calgary remains a viable destination for strategic real estate investment, even as uncertainty clouds the broader macroeconomic landscape.
References: RBC Economics, Q1 U.S. and Canada GDP Updates, April 2025. Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product by Industry – February 2025, April 30, 2025. ATB Economics, The Twenty Four Seven: Alberta Economic Outlook, March 20, 2025.
Connect with ClearView: Curious how Alberta's resilience and national economic trends could influence your real estate strategy? Contact us at info@cvpartners.ca we’re here to help you explore how ClearView can support your commercial real estate goals.