Wage Growth Set to Rise as Immigration Slows, Conference Board Forecasts
- Clearview Insider
- 1 day ago
- 1 min read
As labour supply tightens and economic headwinds persist, Canadian workers may regain leverage. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that wages will accelerate through 2026 and 2027, with unemployment projected to fall to 5.8% as immigration cools and employers compete harder for local talent.
In its July report, the Board notes that the labour market remains more resilient than expected, with the labour force now growing more slowly than employment — a reversal of two years of high immigration-led expansion. Average hourly wages are already rising at 3.4% year-over-year, and further upward pressure is expected as businesses avoid large hiring moves amid tariff uncertainty.
For commercial real estate in Calgary, this may influence tenant hiring patterns, wage-to-rent ratios, and housing demand forecasts. While the Board expects the economy to grow just 1.5% in 2025, it is not calling for a full recession. However, housing activity remains subdued for now, and the Bank of Canada’s cautious rate posture suggests continued drag on residential and retail segments.
Source: Western Investor, “Canadians will see wages pick up as immigration slows, Conference Board argues,” July 8, 2025. https://www.westerninvestor.com/economy-law-politics/canadians-will-see-wages-pick-up-as-immigration-slows-conference-board-argues-10908735
Connect with ClearView: Curious how labour shifts and wage dynamics may influence space absorption, tenant retention, or housing-linked CRE exposure? Let’s talk: info@cvpartners.ca