Tariff Tensions Shift Trade Dynamics, Signal Caution for Industrial Sector

Canada’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $510 million in March, outperforming expectations. The improvement came not from growth, but from steeper import declines (-1.5%) than exports (-0.2%), following the imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Exports to the U.S. fell 6.6%—the sharpest drop since the pandemic—while exports to the rest of the world surged 24.8%. Imports from the U.S. also dropped (-2.9%) as Canada enacted retaliatory measures.

For Calgary’s industrial and logistics-focused CRE market, the data points to volatility in trade-linked sectors, especially transportation equipment, metals, and energy. While net trade contributed positively to Q1 GDP growth, businesses tied to cross-border supply chains may face pressure. As tariff uncertainty lingers, real estate users may increasingly seek flexible warehousing and diversified distribution strategies.

Reference: Jocelyn Paquet, “Canada: The imposition of tariffs disrupted trade flows in March,” National Bank of Canada Economics and Strategy, May 6, 2025.

Connect with ClearView: Concerned how global trade friction could impact Calgary’s industrial leasing or tenant mix? Reach out to us at info@cvpartners.ca — we’re here to help you navigate evolving market risks with confidence.

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