Canada’s Economic Outlook – Fall 2025
- ClearView Insider
- Oct 7
- 1 min read
Deloitte projects Canada will avoid a recession in 2025, with GDP growth of 1.3% this year and 1.7% in 2026.
Rates: The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its policy rate to 2.25% by year-end, easing pressure on households and businesses.
Jobs: Unemployment has risen to 7.1%, the highest since 2016 outside the pandemic, led by manufacturing job losses.
Trade: Canada’s CUSMA carve-out continues to shield roughly 95% of exports from steep U.S. tariffs.
Housing: Pent-up demand may drive a stronger rebound in resale markets in 2026.
Alberta:
-Alberta GDP growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2025, improving to 2.1% in 2026.
The province’s unemployment rate stands at 8.4%.
-The Canadian economy remains sluggish, but lower rates, infrastructure investment, and a gradual rebound in consumer and housing markets are expected to set the stage for stronger growth in 2026.
Energy export diversification, population growth, and strong housing starts continue to reinforce Calgary’s role as a key driver in Alberta’s recovery. These dynamics will shape demand across office, industrial, and retail as we head into 2026.
Source: Deloitte, Economic Outlook – Fall 2025