Oct 7, 2025
Canada’s Economic Outlook – Fall 2025
Deloitte projects Canada will avoid a recession in 2025, with GDP growth of 1.3% this year and 1.7% in 2026. Rates: The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its policy rate to 2.25% by year-end, easing pressure on households and businesses. Jobs: Unemployment has risen to 7.1%, the highest since 2016 outside the pandemic, led by manufacturing job losses. Trade: Canada’s CUSMA carve-out continues to shield roughly 95% of exports from steep U.S. tariffs. Housing: Pent-up demand ma
