Alberta Resilient as National Headwinds Mount
- Clearview Insider
- Jul 1
- 2 min read
Alberta Resilient as National Headwinds Mount
While more than half of Canada’s industries expanded in April, one sector—manufacturing—was enough to drag the national economy into a 0.1% GDP decline, with further contraction expected in May. Recent reports from NBC and RBC Economics highlight that:
Durable goods production fell 2.2%, led by a 3.7% drop in transportation equipment—its worst decline since Sept. 2021, impacted by a persistent semiconductor shortage.
Non-durable goods also contracted for the fifth time in six months.
As of May, weakness has started spreading to mining, oil & gas, retail, and public administration.
Q2 2025 GDP is expected to dip into negative territory—the first quarterly contraction since Q3 2023.
Despite this, Canada is not in recession, and domestic demand remains broadly resilient. With a sluggish real estate market, soft labour conditions, and inflation largely under control, a Bank of Canada rate cut in July is on the table—but likely hinges on next month’s CPI data.
In contrast: Alberta holds firm.
According to ATB’s June 2025 outlook, Alberta’s economy is projected to grow 1.9% in 2025, thanks to:
Stable energy production,
Strength in construction and consumer activity, and
Continued momentum in food processing, petrochemicals, and technology.
Unemployment is forecast to average 7.3%, reflecting cautious hiring amid an expanding labour force. Yet, hiring demand stabilized in May and June, suggesting a possible floor.
Bottom Line
Alberta is not immune to global pressures—but it is proving more agile and diversified than many expected. As Canada treads economic uncertainty, Alberta’s trajectory offers a compelling counter-narrative for investors, business owners, and policymakers alike.
References:
RBC Economics. Economic Update: Canadian GDP Contracts in April. Royal Bank of Canada Economics, June 28, 2025.
NBC Economics. Economic News – Canada: Q2 GDP Contraction Appears Inevitable. National Bank of Canada Economics and Strategy Group, June 28, 2025.
ATB Financial. Alberta Economic Outlook – June 2025. ATB Economics and Research, June 18, 2025.
Connect with Us: Interested in how Alberta’s market fundamentals could shape your real estate strategy? Contact Clearview Commercial Realty Inc. at info@cvpartners.ca